Preview: The Open Championship
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After having to postpone the 2020 edition of this event, we have finally made it to Royal St. George's for the 2021 Open Championship. There are always a lot of offerings by the market during major championship weeks and I'm going to dive into some of the prop markets on Tipico Sportsbook to find some value for this week's championship.
Top Australian | Cam Smith, +350
It was not a full-on shock to see Smith not the clear Aussie favorite, but I was a bit surprised. Marc Leishman may carry a heavier name, but I knew this line seemed like great value before I even ran it through my model. Fit and history only get you so far and there is no debate on who has been playing the better golf recently and over an extended period of time. Lucas Herbert has the tools to contend and is playing some of the best golf of his life but we've yet to see it sustained and accounting for that he comes up short. I also have to mention Min Woo Lee after his stellar performance to close out the Scottish Open last week. The 22-year-old now has two wins on the European Tour and has what appears to be an extremely bright future but lacks consistency, mainly in his irons, which will be a problem until smoothed out. I think this is a nice price to get Smith as the top Aussie.
Top Frenchman | Antoine Rozner +280
We have hit on a few nice Rozner bets over the last couple of months and will try to capitalize on another here. The French contingency is not the strongest and the top competition for Rozner will be Victor Perez, with Romain Langasque, Michael Lorenzo-Vera and Benjamin Hebert coming in struggling. Perez has looked extremely promising at times in his young career but is in quite a rut, starting in late 2020, minus quite the showing at the Dell Match Play. Rozner has hit a small slump as well compared to how he was playing at the start of 2021, but the ball striking is still solid enough. The short game could be a problem this week if it stays in the shadows, but I don't think he needs a top-10 finish to win this group and I have him a bit heavier of a favorite than the +280 available.
Top Swede | Alex Noren -105
The last nationality prop I wanted to highlight was Noren winning top Swede. There is a shell of a Henrik Stenson arriving at the course — only making the field due to being a past champion — and the other two Swedes in the group are unknowns. Noren, however, has seen quite the resurgence in his game, fueled by a much-improved OTT game dating back to early February. I hope this one won't be much of a sweat and priced Noren closer at -136.
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