Preview: PGA Championship
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This week’s PGA Tour tournament preview is for the year’s second major, the PGA Championship. This major rotates through courses and this year’s event will take place at the Kiawah Ocean Course on Kiawah Island, SC. A PGA Championship was previously played here in 2012, producing Rory McIlroy as the champion by 8 strokes over David Lynn. Weather will potentially be a factor this week with the course being on the ocean, so be sure to check for weather splits before the tournament kicks off on Thursday.
Here are some of my favorite bets of the tournament on Tipico Sportsbook.
Hole in One – No, +105
I don’t have anything modeled for this prop. My conclusion on betting this comes from looking at all the factors and variables that Kiawah is going to be throwing at the golfers this weekend. On the card, the shortest par 3 is listed at 194 yards, although during the tournament different tee boxes could be used shortening that by a bit. In general, all of the par 3s require long(er) irons. Now when we factor in the wind, they will become even more difficult to judge distances and I’ve already seen reports of golfers using 3-woods on a couple of the par 3s. I have nothing of my own to back this up, but the National Hole In One registry claims that a PGA pro has a 1 in 3,000 chance to make a hole in one. There will be less than 2,000 attempts at par 3s this week, in tougher than normal conditions. I believe there is enough in my favor to make this wager despite not having odds modeled for it.
Justin Thomas -110 vs. Jordan Spieth (Tie is loss)
Betting on or against Spieth is always an adventure considering his driving is not that consistent, which puts him in precarious positions, but he’s also a wizard from these difficult situations. He has obviously found something this season which has propelled him back up leaderboards however I’ve knocked him down, and Thomas up, with how I believe the course will play this week. The adjustments were enough to give me an edge at this price of -110. Thomas has been struggling mightily on the greens, which is a concern, although long term he is an average putter which plays into his rating for me more than his recent form on the greens. The superior ball striking and similar ARG game is what propels Thomas ahead of Spieth and I think that will have a greater affect on the outcome this week.
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