Preview: Waste Management Phoenix Open
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This week, the PGA Tour is off to Phoenix to play the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course. It’s a rare course where an advantage can be gained through both distance and accuracy, though distance still reigns supreme when searching for the largest edge. Aggressive golfers can be greatly rewarded here, with a drivable par four in the closing holes, and three par fives that every golfer can go for to give themselves makeable looks at eagle. Trouble can be found for those too wayward off the tee, limiting those shots and preventing golfers from being aggressive, which is where the bump in accuracy advantage comes from.
Who should you watch out for?
Scrolling through the Tipico Sportsbook odds board, the first name that jumped out was Will Zalatoris (40/1). Zalatoris is new on the PGA Tour scene, earning his status through exceptional play in his limited starts last season. He was one of the most consistently good golfers on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and has carried that over to the PGA Tour. After making his first big splash at the U.S. Open, he has continued to play well and finished inside the top 10 last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. The strength of his game is off the tee and approach (project him to gain close to 1.5 strokes per round through his long game), which should serve him well at TPC Scottsdale. If he can find a low round, I’m confident in his consistent play to hang on and close out a victory.
The other golfer in the same odds range I will back is Brooks Koepka (40/1). It’s taken some mediocre finishes, an injury and three straight missed cuts to bring Koepka to a bettable number. He has been priced for the last couple years based off his stellar performances in majors, which to me, have been outliers on his range of expected outcomes. His overall game hasn’t changed much from when he was winning to now so I will scoop up the 40/1 on a golfer still playing at a winning level. Missed cuts happen and Brooks has continued to strike the ball well, gaining close to a stroke per round through the long game, paired with a solid chipping and putting. TPC Scottsdale suits his game and hopefully being at a comfortable venue where he has won before can help propel him to another victory.
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