Preview: The Memorial Tournament
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The PGA Tour will make its way to the Midwest for The Memorial Tournament, which will take place at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, OH. The tournament has been played here since 1976 and has seen a myriad of finishing scores, course conditions, and last year it hosted back-to-back events. The course went under renovation immediately following last years Memorial, with the most work going into the green contours and about 100 yards in length was added. I don’t believe these to be significant changes, however with no data that is purely a guess and I focused my course fit modeling on years prior to 2020.
Here are some of my favorite bets of the tournament on Tipico Sportsbook.
Cameron Smith | Outright Winner | +5,000
I am quite bullish on Smith this week compared to the market, and I made him +3,700. Let’s reverse engineer that just a bit with some descriptive stats. He is having a career year and if it ended now, it would be the first time in my weighted ratings that he finished positive on all strokes gained categories. He’s a fairly average driver of the golf ball and won’t gain much of an advantage from the tee this week, however, his strong short game gives him one of the more significant bumps from that category that he will see all year. Muirfield is demanding around the green and although golfers still need to gain strokes elsewhere, it rates as one of the highest in around the green advantage when I broke it down compared to the average PGA Tour course. The weakest part of his game, driving, should not kill him this week, and I think the good form continues.
Xander Schauffele | Group B Winner | +350
Vs. Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, and Hideki Matsuyama
Schauffele is another golfer who I am quite a bit higher on across most golf markets being offered, and he avoided some other heavier hitters who are in Group A (Rahm/Spieth). Hovland is playing extremely well, Thomas and Cantlay have solid performances here, and Hideki is the most recent Masters’ champion, so it’s still not going to be a walk in the park. I rate Schauffle the highest of the group but essentially tied with Hovland. He’s an incredibly consistent golfer who rarely loses strokes in any category over entire tournaments. At a course that can test the field and allow the best golfers to separate, his ability to gain a lot of strokes across all four categories will be a nice weapon.
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