MLB 7/6/21 Preview
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We have a full slate of MLB games Tuesday. As we do every Tuesday, it is time to take a look at the local teams in action on Tipico Sportsbook. This is a Jacob deGrom day for Mets fans. It’s an Aaron Nola day for Phillies fans as well. For Yankee fans, it’s a Jameson Taillon day, which is really not all that exciting. All three of the local teams are favored to win, so the real question we have to ask is whether any of them are providing us some value.
How good has Jacob deGrom been in 2021?
Only two pitchers in the last 50 years have been voted MVP of the National League. DeGrom is currently the shortest price to become the third on Tipico Sportsbook. That’s how dominant he has been. He is favored to win the Cy Young right now at almost -600, meaning he’s being given an implied probability of over 80%. He currently has an ERA under 1, a career best. His xFIP is a tad higher at 1.63, but even that is ridiculously good. He is currently averaging a career-high 14.4 K/9 with a .209 BABIP and a 0.42 HR/9. These are video game-type numbers when you have the settings on rookie level. He opened as a -250 favorite and that has climbed up to -280 on Tipico as of Tuesday morning. Fair value for deGrom is -300, so we still have a little bit of value left. I’ll take the Mets money line here as part of a parlay to juice up the returns.
Can Aaron Nola beat the Cubs?
On the surface, Nola does not have the best numbers this year, but he’s been very unlucky. His ERA is 4.44 with an xFIP of 3.33. That’s more than a run higher. His career xFIP is 3.37, so that baseline is more what we should expect out of him. He has been on the wrong side of variance so far this year. He normally has a BABIP of below .300, but this year that number is .331. That is one reason why the ERA is higher than the xFIP. Another is that he has allowed a few more homers than he usually does. His worst HR/9 for his career was 1.27 as a rookie. His lifetime number was und4er 1.00 to start the season. This year, he has a 1.32 HR/9. This is another reason why his ERA is higher than his xFIP. His strikeouts are up above 11 per 9 this year, and his BB/9 is below his career average. Those are positives that should help him lower that ERA going forward. This is a good day for him to start doing that in a very good matchup. The Cubs’ active roster has just a 90 wRC+ against RHP this year. That means they are scoring runs at a rate about 10% below league average. We always have to be mindful of the weather in Wrigley, but Nola should be a big favorite. The price has moved from -125 to -145 already, so we missed getting the best of the price here, but I still think they are a tad undervalued as Nola is too good and this Cubs offense is really bad against righties.
The MLB parlay of the day
Today, my local action parlay is going to be the Mets and Phillies. The Phillies are basically fairly valued today, but deGrom even at -280 feels a bit too low. You will not make a ton of money betting on a guy at -280, but we can add some value to our bet by linking this to the Phillies. Parlaying the two together currently gets you a payout of +129 on Tipico Sportsbook. They currently are offering a deposit match bonus for new customers. To take advantage of those deals, click the link here and get an even better return on your investment with the free money they are offering.
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