MLB 6/8/21 Preview
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We have a full slate of MLB games on tap for Tuesday evening and all of the local teams in the Tipico Sportsbook market are in action.
Yankees fans will recognize the guy throwing against them today, as Michael Pineda takes on Jordan Montgomery in Minnesota. The Mets are facing the Orioles at Camden Yards with a pitching matchup of two guys with a combined ERA over 10. Get ready for some runs to be scored in that one, even with sub-par offenses.
Finally, the Phillies host the Atlanta Braves in one of the more one-sided pitching matchups of the day, as ace Aaron Nola takes on the aging and less effective Drew Smyly.
Let’s dive a little deeper and see if we can find value with any of these plays.
Can Aaron Nola dominate the Braves?
The Phillies and Braves are both just under .500 on the season. That’s a bit disappointing for each fan base. Phillies fans will be happy to know that they are likely to leap the Braves in the standings today, provided they take care of business here. Our numbers line this game at -190; yet, Tipico Sportsbook currently has it at only -170. That is a little too cheap.
Aaron Nola is one of the better pitchers in the National League. He was dominant in the shortened 2020 season. So far this year, he has been solid, even with variance going against him. His current BABIP is .316, which is above his career averages. He is striking out just shy of 10 batters per 9, which is in line with his career averages. His BB/9 is down and his xFIP is below his ERA, so positive regression is expected. More importantly, though, the matchup for the Phillies bats gives me even more confidence here. Drew Smyly has really struggled. He is serving up homers like a BP pitcher. The current number is 2.70 per 9 innings. What gives me even more confidence in the Phillies here is the fact this offense has a 107 wRC+ score against LHP this year with their active roster. Nola is good enough to keep the Braves from exploding offensively and the Phillies offense should have no problem putting up runs on Smyly in this matchup. -170 is not a cheap price, but there is value in that number, as it probably closes closer to -200 by first pitch.
How many runs can the Mets and Orioles score?
The second bet of the day I am interested in is a total. It is already a high total, but the pitching and ballpark make me think it is not high enough. The Mets are traveling to Baltimore to take on the Orioles here. The Mets are throwing the young lefty, David Peterson. He has a WHIP of 1.40, which is not helped by his over 4 BB/9. What is really killing him is the .83 HR/9, especially moving to a HR-friendly park like Camden Yards. Giving up homers is bad, but walking a lot of guys and giving up homers is a killer. Peterson looked better in 2020, but so far that guy has not shown his face in 2021.
His opposite today is another young lefty in Bruce Zimmerman, who has allowed even more base runners with a 1.53 WHIP and has given up more homers at 2.02/9. In 25 innings of work, Zimmermann has allowed 32 hits, 8 walks and 6 homers. His best-case scenario is probably 5 innings with 3 runs allowed, and his worst-case does not even get that deep into the game. Both of these pitchers have blow-up potential. Both give up tons of base runners and are serving up homers this year. The only thing that is a slight saving grace for him is that the Mets are a tad below league average with a 98 wRC+ score. Still, bad pitching trumps bad hitting, so this could be one of the better offensive games for the Mets.
On the other side, Peterson will have his hands full. So far, the Orioles have the third-highest wRC+ score against lefties in the entire MLB at 122. They will likely roll out a lineup with five guys who have a 135 wRC+ score or better, which is in addition to guys like Mikail Franco and Pedro Severino, who are also above league average in wRC+. This is also why I think the Orioles themselves have some value at +105 on the moneyline. I prefer the total bet of the two because I expect this game to be a slugfest against weak pitchers in a hitter’s paradise. Even at 9.5 runs, it feels a little low. At plus money, though, it's hard to not pick the Orioles to win the game outright. It might be a 9-5 final score, but a win is a win, especially when you are getting a home dog.
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