MLB 4/27/21 Preview
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We have a robust day of MLB games Tuesday. We have something very interesting for fans in New Jersey, no matter what part of the state you live in. All three of the “local” teams are favored, but which one is the best bet?
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
The Phillies are the smallest favorite of the three. In fact, this line has straddled the Phillies and Cardinals both being favored at various points overnight, but the current early-morning moneyline on Tipico Sportsbook has them both at -110. This is a very interesting matchup. On the mound for the Phillies we have Zach Eflin. Eflin has been very lucky this season — his ERA is only 2.77, but his xERA and xFIP are both a run or more higher, meaning regression is likely to come for Eflin. One good thing is that this game moves from a homer-friendly Philadelphia to an unfriendly park in St. Louis. Eflin has a career HR/9 rate that was close to 1.50 to start the season, but he’s held the ball in the park and cut that by 33% this year so far. He also faces a Cardinals lineup that has not hit right-handed pitching well this year. The big bats of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have been well below average against righties so far, and that has the Cardinals sitting with just an 83 wRC+ this year, fifth worst in the league. On the flip side of this, Carlos Martinez is getting lit up. His ERA is over 6.00 in four starts, and even his xFIP and xERA are close to 5.00. He has some positive regression coming, but even with that he’s still projected to be a well below-average pitcher. The Phillies offense is basically league average against righties with a 99 wRC+ in the early part of the season, but that’s still more productive than the Cardinals offense has been. The Phillies have the slightly better offense and the slightly better pitching on the mound, so they should have remained a slight favorite. The fact that it is even money -110 on both moneyline has me leaning toward the Phillies in this one.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
The second-biggest local favorite Tuesday is the Mets hosting the Red Sox. The Mets are throwing former first-rounder David Peterson here. He was solid in last year’s coronavirus-shortened season but is off to a rough start in 2021. He was roughed up in Philly to start his season before pitching well against Philly at home in his second start. He then regressed again by getting knocked around by the Cubs in Chicago. The Red Sox have a 121 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in 2021. They have just a 17.6% strike out rate too. Peterson is not a strikeout pitcher, which makes this a particularly tough matchup to see where the outs are going to come from. Luckily for the Mets, they face a struggling pitcher as well. Garrett Richards is 32 years old and looks like a shell of the former best version of himself. His ERA is over 6.00 with xERA and xFIP in the high 5.00s, meaning his bad results match his bad pitching and are expected to continue. With two bad pitchers on the mound, the path of least resistance here is to take the over. Tipico has the total runs at 8.5, and we could see that happen here before the fifth inning, with neither pitcher expected to make it deep into this game. Sorry Mets fans, I cannot back them for the win here, but I will make money with you guys betting their over and hoping for a bunch of runs on either side against subpar pitchers.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
The biggest favorite of the day is also the local team I have the least amount of faith in. Matt Harvey shut the Yankees down Monday. Yes, former Met Matt Harvey. It was an embarrassing loss for the Bombers, but we do have a silver lining here. The Yankees lineup is righty-dominant. They have just an 87 wRC+ against fellow righties this year but have cranked a 108 wRC+ against southpaws to start the season. Looking back a few years with their current roster, you can see this trend played out over time. The Yankees bats just hit better against lefties than righties, and the Orioles will throw lefty Bruce Zimmermann at them. On the flip side of this game, the Yankees are throwing the ghost of Corey Kluber. Kluber is no longer the dominant pitcher he used to be; he’s a guy struggling to get outs now in a new uniform after having to prove to everyone in the offseason that his career was not done. Luckily for him, he draws a lineup with just an 84 wRC+ against righties this year. Kluber has been bad, so I do not expect him to shut them down, but this is the kind of game where he is expected to get four of five runs of support and could end up holding on for a win. -190 is a lot to lay on a team that has thoroughly disappointed to start the season, but on paper it does look like the Yankees should win this game 65-70% of the time, which means the number should be around -200. It’s a tad light on the Tipico line, but not by much. I’m not looking to take the Yankees straight up at -190, but they are a nice team to add in to another moneyline favorite in a parlay to get you closer to even money overall.
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