MLB 4/20/21 Preview
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This is a solid Tuesday of action with 15 games on tap in Major League Baseball. With so many options, we should be able to find a few worth betting on. One of the most intriguing to my fellow Garden Staters is going to be the San Francisco Giants taking on the Philadelphia Phillies. This is one of those games where strong opinions are going to be held depending on where your fandom lies.
One of the hardest things to do as a sports fan is watch one of your favorite players leave your favorite team. It becomes even harder to see when that player ends up on your hated division rival. Those are the feelings Mets fans will have today when they watch Zack Wheeler step onto the mound for the Phillies to take on the Giants at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The good news for those still-bitter Mets fans is that it will not be an easy matchup. Wheeler was dominant in one of his three starts this year and pretty pedestrian in the other two. He has been a tad unlucky to start the season as his BABIP is .354 this year vs. .302 for his career. His ERA and xFIP are still in line with his historical performances in the mid-3.00s. Wheeler has always been a heavy GB pitcher, inducing 47% ground balls throughout his career and keeping his HR/9 very low at just 0.85 for his career. If you are going to get to Wheeler, it usually is a mixture of walks and singles that do the damage.
The San Francisco Giants do get a park boost here going from a pitcher-friendly home stadium to a hitter-friendly park in Philadelphia. They are going to need all the help they can get to score runs here. It is still early, but the Giants have a dreadful 75 wRC+ score against right-handed pitching early in 2021. It has only been 370 plate appearances, but they also have the highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the league so far at a whopping 30.3%. On paper, this sets up as a dominant spot for Wheeler to go out and get back on track.
On the flip side of this game, the Giants are going to have to dig deeper into the bullpen to get these innings covered. Johnny Cueto was originally scheduled to start this game, but an injury will force the Giants to cobble together nine innings from a group of relievers. Logan Webb is slated to be the first pitcher, but I would be shocked if you do not see three or four different guys each eat up a couple innings here, as Webb is not stretched out to go deep after pitching out of the bullpen recently. Webb does have a couple of five-inning performances already this season, but neither of them were quality as he allowed 10 batters to reach base in each and gave up three runs each time. The youngster has not been particularly good against either side of the plate as righties have a .364 wOBA and .481 slugging percentage against him, while lefties have an on-base percentage of .360 as well.
The Phillies have not had the best start to this season against righties, with just a 90 wRC+ so far. Looking back three years with this current roster though, we can see that they should improve to get back to their normal baseline. Since 2018, the current roster has accumulated a 103 wRC+ score against righties with a higher OBP, BABIP, and HR/9 rate then they currently have. A matchup against a group of bullpen arms led by a guy who has a WHIP near two and an ERA around five should help them start to revert to their mean.
Wheeler should dominate a Giants squad that has been dreadful against right-handed pitching to start the season. The Phillies offense should have a good day against a bullpen group led by a guy who is allowing multiple baserunners per inning in a stadium that yields home runs that could crush his soul if he keeps allowing baserunners to get on. Sooner or later one of those big bopping Phillies bats is going to take Webb yard and if he keeps allowing baserunnes that eventual home run mistake could be a multi-run shot that puts the game out of reach against a solid pitcher. The moneyline here is sitting at -170 on Tipico Sportsbook, which is in line with expectations. The value today is actually playing the -1.5 run line in this game. At +125 for the -1.5 runs, Tipico is offering the best payout on the run line of any book in the state of New Jersey. Salty Mets fans may want to play against Wheeler, but those of us that like money will enjoy the +125 payout when the Phillies end up burying the Giants by more than one and a half runs in this one.
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