MLB 6/22/21 Preview
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We have a full slate of baseball games for our betting pleasure Tuesday. All the local teams are in action for the Tipico Sportsbook markets. That local market is the online gambling capital of the U.S., otherwise known as New Jersey. The weather is heating up, kids are finishing school, and I can assure you that the Tipico mobile app works even when you are sitting in a beach chair on the Jersey shore. They are currently offering a redeposit bonus of 10% on a $1,000 deposit, so now is a good time to load up the account and get ready for summer. No matter what part of the state you live in or who your favorite local team is, I have the breakdown for you on whether they are a good bet.
The Phillies have an interdivisional game against the Nationals and are a -125 favorite. Zack Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies, and the Nationals still do not have a listed pitcher as of 8 a.m. ET Tuesday. They had a doubleheader over the weekend, so the pitching rotation has been stretched. Wheeler has been very good this year. His 11.02 K/9 are a career best and his 2.15 ERA is a career low and backed by a 2.44 xFIP, which means he’s been good, not lucky. We saw this happen in the short season last year, and the trend has continued. One of the main differences is that Wheeler is limiting hard contact more than ever before. You even see it in his HR/9 number of just 0.65. My faith in the Phillies is squarely on Wheeler’s shoulders. I think with him on the mound the Phillies should have a higher chance to win than 55%. At odds of -125, that is what is implied. This is why I think Phillies fans should get some money down now before this number climbs.
The Yankees are Tuesday’s biggest favorite of the home teams. They are -280 against the Royals. You can almost tell who is pitching just by looking at the line for the Bombers. It’s a Gerrit Cole day, and he is facing a subpar starter in Brady Singer. Are they likely to win? Absolutely; the -280 moneyline implies a 73.6% chance of it. The problem is that’s a big number. Despite the pitching mismatch, it is probably even too high of an estimate. Not enough to make me want to bet on the Royals, but even as a Yankees fan I can admit that they are a bad value at that number.
The Mets are the only underdog of the local teams. They played a doubleheader against the Braves Tuesday, and Jacob deGrom got some run support in the early game and the Mets won 4-2. The bats fell asleep despite good pitching in the latter game as they lost 1-0. They are even money Tuesday at +100 on Tipico. It’s a very good pitching matchup Tuesday as well. The Mets are throwing Marcus Stroman against Charlie Morton of the Braves. Stroman’s numbers look good on the surface with a 2.35 ERA, but the underlying numbers concern me a bit. His FIP is over 3.50 (3.52), so his 2.35 ERA shows he’s been very lucky. His GB rate is down a bit and his hard contact rate is 34.7%. Stroman has always been a guy who gives up some hard contact, with a career rate of 31%, but it’s amplified when guys are hitting you harder and also getting more line drives and fly balls. His HR/9 is still below league average, but it’s climbed this year as well.
Morton on the other hand is the opposite. His ERA is over 4, but he actually has a FIP roughly the same as Stroman’s (3.60). His K/9 (10.02) is above his career average of 8.08. Morton’s hard contact rate is actually a bit lower than his career average as well, so he is a guy we would say that has been unlucky and pitched a bit better than his surface numbers. On top of the fact that Morton has pitched just as well as Stroman, the Braves offense is also better than the Mets. The Braves have a 102 wRC+ against RHP, slightly above league average. The Mets have a 96 wRC+, slightly below.
The Mets at even money here is just a bad play. They might end up winning, but this game is not a coinflip as the odds suggest. The Braves have a slight edge in pitching and a decent-sized edge with the bats. My bigger concern is that both teams played two games Monday, and this may be a day where we see a few regulars sit. If so, we would have to reassess which team is playing closer to their optimal lineup. If you see a few more Braves regulars sit, then the lineups would even out in terms of expected offensive ability. The pitching is close enough that it would be more of a coinflip, but still favor the Braves slightly. That is why I can’t take the Mets here at even money. I think best-case scenario I would need +110 to not hate myself and at least +120 or +125 before I started to consider playing it.
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