Midseason MLB Futures Betting Market
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Friday at FTN Bets is known as futures Friday, because every week we discuss the futures betting market at Tipico Sportsbook in one sport. This week that sport is going to be Major League Baseball.
The markets we are going to look at are for individual awards. Most teams have played around 80 games so far, which means we are about at the halfway point to the season. Now is a good time to check in on some of the prices and see if we can find some value in any of these markets. I think the Mets fans are going to like this one.
Can anyone beat out Jacob deGrom for the National League Cy Young award?
Every market has a favorite, but every futures market with literally hundreds of potential winning options does not always have a -600 favorite. Most of the other futures markets we look at likely won’t even have anyone priced at a negative number. But at -600, deGrom is being given an implied chance of winning the Cy Young of over 85%. We have 15 teams in the National League, each with five-ish starters and a couple relievers who are eligible for this award. That’s roughly 75-100 pitchers, and deGrom is so far ahead of the pack that the field bet on pictures not named Jacob deGrom would still be about a +650 right now. DeGrom has been unbelievably good so far in 2021. He has a career-best 14.40 K/9 rate, career lows in ERA (0.95), xFIP (1.64), BABIP (.209), and HR/9 allowed (0.42). He did miss a couple starts during the year, so he’s 15-20 innings behind some of the league leaders in that category. It may end up being the only category that deGrom doesn’t dominate this season. At this point, you have to consider him the runaway leader for the award unless he comes down with an injury and misses time. The year he is currently putting together is like nothing we have ever seen in the present era. With that said, I do not want to take this bet. DeGrom is -600, meaning for every $100 you bet on him to win the Cy Young, you win about $16. He has already missed some time this year, so an injury ending his season is not out of the question. If deGrom stays healthy this is his award, so I have zero desire to try to get cute here and look for someone else to win it.
Can Jacob deGrom win the NL MVP Award?
As I was researching this article, I came across an interesting situation. Not only is deGrom the clubhouse leader with the lowest odds to win the Cy Young, but he also is the current favorite to win the NL MVP. This is a market that we need to discuss. A pitcher can win the MVP award. It is extremely rare, and the voters do not do it regularly, but others have taken home the trophy. The most recent example was Clayton Kershaw in 2014. Before that you have to go all the way back to 1968 with Bob Gibson in the National League (though it’s happened several times in the American League in that time). It is possible, but as mentioned it is also extremely rare. Currently deGrom is at +140 on Tipico to take home the award, giving him an implied probability of 41.6%. Considering we have only had two pitchers take home the award in the NL in the last 53 years, a 41.6% probability feels a little too high. Whenever a favorite feels overbet and there is precedent to bet against him, that creates an opportunity.
As good a season as deGrom is having on the mound, we also have a guy who is having a memorable season with his bat: Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis has a shot at the NL Triple Crown this year. He is currently leading the league in homers with 26, is second to Ozzie Albies in RBI with 56, and is sixth in batting average amongst qualified hitters at .299. He is also second in the league in runs scored and has the top WAR at 4.0, the second-best OBP behind Max Muncy, and the top wOBA, slugging and wRC+. I know deGrom’s numbers are historically off the charts this year, but Tatis is having a historically great season as well and he plays every day.
Remember that these awards are not as black and white as who wins or loses a baseball game. They are awarded based on a vote. It’s only the midway point of the season and we already hear some sportswriters saying that they would have reservations voting for a pitcher to win the MVP. That further opens the door for someone else to sneak in and take the trophy from deGrom. Regardless of whether he deserves it, we are looking for possible chinks in the armor of the favorite. If even a few writers decide not to put him on a ballot, or not to put him on top of a ballot, that could end up being the difference. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the only other guy priced at below 10-1, and he’s a distant third at the moment behind Tatis and deGrom. I know the price on Tatis is short too, but I would rather play him at +210 than deGrom at +140. Both guys have been absolutely outstanding and both of them are pulling away from the pack. That said, I’ll take the better odds on the position player as deGrom is going to win the Cy Young if he stays healthy and voters have only allowed a pitcher to take home the award in this league twice in the last 53 years. I’m not saying he can’t win it, but when pitchers win this award less than 2% of the time, it seems a little crazy to bet on it happening at an implied probability of 41.6%.
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