MLB Futures Picks
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Earlier this week, we did an article on what to look for when betting MLB Futures at Tipico Sportsbook. Today we are going to put some of that newfound knowledge to work looking for value in the futures market. We will discuss the potential for value in one major team market as well as a few individual award winners. Let’s start with the more macro team view.
In the National League, I find very little value to be had at the moment on the team side. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the chalk. They are in a tight three-way race with two intradivisional opponents in the Padres and Giants for the best overall record in the National League. They are still the deserving chalk, and because of this, the rest of the league lacks some value. As much as it pains me to say, the value lies in the American League. The shortest-priced team on the board is my New York Yankees. They currently sit at +650 to win the World Series. I know it’s still early, but right now they are third in their own division. On top of that, they just lost Corey Kluber for at least a month. It is not the start Yankee fans had envisioned.
The best record in the American League currently belongs to AL East rival Tampa Bay Rays. This is a team I do think has some value. The Rays are currently sitting at +1300 on Tipico Sportsbook. They are in the range with the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics, who are first and second in the AL West. This is the tier behind the chalk where we always find the teams with the best chance to win at prices that are decent enough to care about. Both of those AL West teams are currently sitting at +1500. I prefer the Astros to the Athletics at this price. As much as the baseball fan in me hates that I am saying this, they do have a higher probability of winning the World Series, so are a better value at the price. The last team I want to mention here is the Chicago White Sox. They currently lead the AL Central, but are too low a price for me to take. The White Sox sit at just +700, only 50 basis points behind the Yankees. I’m not saying I think they are a fraudulent team, but at this price I’m not willing to put my hard-earned cash on them. I give the White Sox less than a 10% chance to win the championship, so anything under +1000 is unplayable for me.
Another early-season bet I like is for the National League MVP. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the chalk at +280. That’s too low of a price to take. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the second-shortest price and already dealing with some injury issues. Jacob deGrom is third and has been dealing with injuries himself and pitches for a team with a suspect offense. As good as deGrom is, very few pitchers ever win this award. This creates the opportunity for a dark horse to emerge from behind the top-end options. In the American league Shohei Ohtani is basically running away with this award early. I can’t see trying to fight the freight train here as he is pitching well and leading the league in dingers. I like Acuña, but does he deserve to have a third of the payout of guys like Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant or Juan Soto? Hell, the guy I like the best for this award right now is Nick Castellanos. The Cincy outfielder is the current NL leader in WAR, which is basically another way of using analytics to say he has meant the most to his team. Castellanos is hitting over .350, slugging over .670 and has a 188 wRC+. Acuña has a few more home runs and one more RBI early in the year, but his average is under .280, his OBP is below .400 and he’s 25 points behind Castellanos in wRC+. I am not saying Acuna doesn’t deserve to be in the conversation or even leading the conversation, but not five times more likely than some of the other guys mentioned here. The race in the National League for MVP is a lot more wide-open, which creates value for the other guys in the mix who are longer odds than they should have, because of Acuña being so short.
Tipico Sportsbook currently offers futures bets on World Series winners, division winners and every individual award from MVP to Rookie of the Year and anything else in between. The later we get into the season, the more likely I am to tell you to take the chalk. With about one-third of the season out of the way already, now is still early enough to look beyond the obvious and see where you can find some value. Remember, it is a lot more fun to root for a team or player when you're holding a ticket that pays 10-1 or better than it is to wait until they are a -150 favorite for an award and bet them then. Avoid taking chalk this far out and instead try to find a reason to knock the chalk. If you think the favorite has holes, that is when you should dig deeper into the second-tier choices and try to find your dark horse that can help you make a score.
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