March Madness Breakdown: Post First and Second Round
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Chaos. Turmoil. Endless disappointment.
Unless you’re Bill Walton camping out in your backyard teepee hitting the bong repeatedly in celebration, presumably only in a loincloth, odds are strong your bracket was rolled and smoked ages ago.
Historically speaking, this is the nuttiest, wackiest and most unpredictable NCAA Tournament ever. From VCU’s inability to play due to COVID-19 complications to a record number of 13 and lower seeds advancing into the Round of 32 to the Pac-12’s pure dominance and the Big Ten’s abject failure, this is unquestionably the dumbest, most glorious March event we’ve ever witnessed. Without the Big Dance last season, the steady stream of upsets is more than welcomed.
We all deserved such unfiltered madness.
Oral Roberts, among others, may have eliminated you from the office pool, but there is still cash to be made.
Here are my favorite NCAA Champion value futures from each region (Odds from Tipico Sportsbook)
Midwest Region Pick — Loyola-Chicago Odds
Sporters of greasy cookie dusters unite! Cameron Krutwig, whose mustache drips with the oily runoff of a dozen KFC buckets, once again has his Ramblers in the Sweet Sixteen. In command from start-to-finish against title favorite Illinois, they asserted their will defensively, picked-and-rolled seamlessly and executed their game plan without a hitch. The best defensive team in the country — surrendering 0.862 points per possession — they switch, communicate and clog lanes with remarkable efficiency. On the offensive end the Fighting Sister Jeans cut and backdoor the opposition repeatedly. Over their last five games, they’ve also torched the nets at a ridiculous 45.7% clip. Keith Clemons, Braden Norris and Lucas Williamson can seriously knock down jumpers. Assuming Loyola gets past Oregon St., it could lock horns with primary contender Houston, a team it can match defensive blow for blow with en route to its second Final Four berth in the last three tournaments. Loyola Chicago is +1300 to win the NCAA Championship.
South Region Pick — Arkansas Odds
Razorbacks head coach Eric Musselman exudes the energy of a scurry-happy toddler after consuming a gallon of high-fructose fruit juice. The same enthusiasm is imprinted onto his team. With wins over Colgate and feisty Texas Tech, Arkansas is in the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since Nolan Richardson’s heyday in 1996. Length, athleticism and spirited efforts on defense are its primary calling cards. Relishing a brisk pace (No. 17 in adjusted tempo), the Razorbacks charge and drive through contact, converting early and often around the tin or at the free-throw line. Stymieing in nature, they’ve allowed just 41.7% from two over their last five contests while forcing an opponent turnover on 21.7% of their possessions. Moses Moody and Justin Smith earn the headlines, but JD Notae, Davonte Davis and Jalen Tate are, too, effective scorers. In a December rematch, a game in which Arkansas triumphed 87-76, the Hogs should again control the upper hand against Cinderella Oral Roberts. Handling Baylor, however, would be a very different story. Still, it owns the defensive nimbleness needed to compete against the Bears’ bevy of smooth-shooting guards. At +2100, this is a bargain.
West Region Pick — USC Odds
Lambasted. Admonished. Questioned. The Pac-12 almost inexplicably is dominating this NCAA Tournament. Yes, a mass extinction event is imminent. While it lasted, it was nice blowing cash on a multitude of bets. Among its remaining participants, the Trojans have the best shot of representing the league in the Final Four. As witnessed against Drake and in a complete annihilation of Kansas, USC’s length is extremely problematic for opponents highly reliant on buckets inside the lane. Over the last six games, Evan Mobley and Co. rank top-10 nationally in points per possession allowed (0.858), effective field-goal percentage D (41.9%) and two-point percentage D (37.7%). Barrel into the forest and odds are strong your shot will be deposited elsewhere. Mobley alone has accounted for six blocks in two games. Most encouraging for Andy Enfield, who is an impeccable 9-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, his club has awakened from deep. Tahj Eaddy, Isaiah Mobley and Isaiah White are primary reasons why they’ve shot 40.0% on triples this month. Identical to Alabama, three and D is a winning formula. Another showdown with Oregon awaits, but the Trojans are undoubtedly the biggest threat to Gonzaga in the West. USC is +2500 to win it all.
East Region Pick — Florida State Odds
Similar to Leonard Hamilton’s immobilized foot, the Seminoles keep the competition contained. UNCG tested FSU in the opening round, but it quickly laid waste to a stampeding Colorado club off an historic offensive performance versus Georgetown. The equation for Hamilton is rudimentary mathematics — recruit athletic bigs, complement them with smooth-stroking wings and emphasize defense. This is why FSU is in the Sweet Sixteen for the fourth time in 10 years. Scottie Barnes and Raiquan Gray execute at a pro-level, beating opponents off the bounce, draining threes and thwarting shots. Because the tandem is surrounded by quality complements like Anthony Politte, MJ Walker and seven-footer Balsa Koprivica, explosive outbursts aren’t necessary. Shooting over 38% as a team from distance and top-30 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, FSU is downright dangerous, provided it cares for the basketball. Turnovers have occasionally plagued it. Still, the ‘Noles outstretched arms and defensive chops pose problems for a Michigan team potentially down Isaiah Livers. Allowing only 29.8% from three in their last six games, they also match up nicely against a three-happy Alabama squad. It’s entirely plausible the ‘Noles reach the Final Four for the first time in nearly five decades. At +1800, there is value here.
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