Tipico Sportsbook & FTN: Betting on March Madness
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As the calendar turns to March, the sports betting world focus shifts to college basketball. March Madness has always been one of the biggest betting events of the year. Even non-sports fans are getting money down on office pools throughout the country. We were robbed of a tournament last year as COVID-19 was exploding, so this is really the first tournament with legalized sports betting in many states. Everyone is familiar with how office pools work, but here are some things to think about if you are heading over to Tipico Sportsbook to bet on any individual games.
The first round of the NCAA tournament is always the most action-packed. We have a four-game play-in followed by 16 games on each of the first two days and another 8 games each on the third and fourth days. That gives us 52 opportunities to bet in a five-day span during the first weekend. If you want action, you have plenty of opportunities to get money down.
The NCAA tournament has been around a long time and we have quite a bit of data to look at when analyzing potential bets. One of my favorite things to look at is the historical performance. Looking at what record each seed has can point us to places we should be looking for potential winning plays. For example, since 1985 the No. 1 seeds are 139-1. Virginia lost to UMBC in 2018 as a No. 1 seed. It was the only loss for a No. 1 seed in the last 35 years of the tournament. The odds on the No. 1 seed are not likely to pay well, but your chance to cash that bet is over 99%. No. 2 seeds are not as good, but it’s still a massive edge. The No. 2 seeds have won 95% of their games. Based on the 132-8 record, we would see one No. 2 seed lose in the first round once every four years on average. You will not win a lot of money taking these big favorites, but the statistics are staggering when you look at win percentages of these top seeds in Round 1.
If you are looking for good betting value, here are some things to think about. Since 1985, No. 9 seeds are 71-69 against No. 8 seeds. The higher seeded team tends to be the favorite in these matchups, meaning you have seen plus-money value pay off on blindly betting 9 seeds since 1985. In fact, if you bet every No. 9 seed in the first round, you would have won slightly over 50% of your bets and turned a nice profit due to the fact most of those No. 9 seeds were underdogs.
Teams seeded 1-4 are tough to bet against. The No. 3 seeds have won 85% of first-round games and No. 4 seeds are winning at about an 80% clip. At best, you have a 15-20% chance when betting against these teams. Where the math starts working itself out in your favor is betting against seeds No. 5 through 8. It is well-known bracket folklore that a No. 12 seed beats a No. 5 every year, and you need one of those in your bracket. While it does not happen every year, it is close. The No. 5 seeds have won just 65% of first-round matchups, which is the biggest drop-off in win percentage of any seed when going from 4 to 5.
The 6 and 7 seeds are also right in that low 60% range for win percentage. These 5, 6, and 7 seeds tend to be favored, meaning your most likely chance to get a decent plus-money underdog home is by playing against those 5-7 seeds. These teams lose 35-40% of their matchups here, which means the sweet spot for value and win percentage is taking the 12, 13, and 14th seeded teams playing against them. These lower-seeded teams still only win about a third of the matchups here, so blindly betting them all is not likely to make you a profit. The sweet spot is still the 12-14 seeds, but you have to be selective and pick only the ones you really like if you are trying to make money. They do not call it March Madness because everything works out as planned, so embrace the variance and understand that upsets will happen. Knowing where the upsets are more likely to happen gives us a chance to make smart bets to try to capitalize on where the money tends to be made.
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