Tipico One-Play Payday
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Welcome to a Monday edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday”, we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.
We have an exciting six-game NBA Betting slate on tap, here are all the games and odds via Tipico Sportsbook.
Tipico Sportsbook lines
- Washington Wizards (+260) @ Atlanta Hawks (-7.5, -333), 236.6
- Indiana Pacers (-8.5, -400) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (+300), 229.5
- New Orleans Pelicans (+300) @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8.5,-450), 227.5
- Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -250) @ San Antonio Spurs (+220), 233.5
- Utah Jazz (-3.5,-155) @ Golden State Warriors (+125), 226.5
- Houston Rockets (+800) @ Portland Trail Blazers (-15.5, -1500), 238.5
Today's Tipico Sportsbook picks
For today’s Tipico One-Play PayDay, I am looking to parlay three heavy favorites in a ML parlay.
- Indiana Pacers -400
- Memphis Grizzlies -450
- Milwaukee Bucks -280
- Portland Trail Blazers -1500
When we are this late in the NBA season, we need to check in on what teams’ motivations are…
The Pacers are currently the 10th seed in the East, with a 2.5 game lead over the surging (winners of three straight games) Chicago Bulls. As a reminder, the teams seeded seventh through 10 all advance to the play-in round. While the Pacers' lead feels somewhat safe, both the Bulls (2.5 games back) and the Raptors (4.5 games back) are still not eliminated from taking that 10 seed. Their opponent, the Cleveland Cavaliers, have lost 10 straight games and are now only .5 games back from being in the top three of the lottery, which improves their chances of having the No. 1 overall pick by 3.3%. That is a massive incentive to lose and at -400, we are getting good value on the Pacers.
The Grizzlies are a bit of an odds booster, as they are in a fairly secure spot as the No. 9 seed in the West. Their opponent, the New Orleans Pelicans, is chasing the Grizzlies, as they are currently the 11th seed in the west, 2.5 games back from the Spurs and 3.5 games back on the Grizzlies. That said, the Pelicans are also incredibly banged up with Zion Williamson out for the remainder of the season, and Brandon Ingram, who is currently questionable, has missed their last two games. This screams to me as an opportunity for the Grizzlies to cement their place in the play-in round and bury the New Orleans Pelicans.
Both the Bucks and the Spurs have motivation to win and because of that, the Bucks are good value at -280. With the Nets having lost three of their last four games, the Bucks are now just .5 games back of Brooklyn to become the No. 2 seed in the East. The second seed over the third seed in the east is a bit of a big difference because as it stands now, the No. 3 seed would play the Miami Heat. The Nos. 4, 5 and 6 seeds in the east are all separated by a game, so the Hawks and Knicks also come into play for the third seed. That said, having the chance to play one of the Celtics, Hornets, Wizards or Pacers is +EV in the first round rather than potentially playing the reigning Eastern Conference Champions. The Spurs are currently the 10th seed in the West up 2.5 games on the Pelicans. The Spurs feel safe as the 10th seed, but they do have some motivation to win. The Bucks are just a way better team with more motivation to win, so even on the road -280 is good value.
Lastly, the Blazers are -1,500 against the worst team in the NBA, the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are in full-blown tank mode, sporting a G League roster while being losers of five straight games and nine of their last 10. The Rockets are continuing to secure their spot at the top of the lottery while the Blazers are a playoff-bound team trying to maintain its position as the No. 6 seed in the west over the Los Angeles Lakers. So we have a team that wants to lose, facing a team that really wants to win, where the team that “really wants to win” is the much more talented team. This is simply adding another team in to slightly, and I mean slightly, boost our odds.
To recap, today’s One-Play Payday is:
- Indiana Pacers -400
- Memphis Grizzlies -450
- Milwaukee Bucks -250
- Portland Trail Blazers -1500
+121, 1u risked to win 1.21u.
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