Does the NBA Regular Season Matter?
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We are coming down to the last week of the NBA regular season, so now is a good time to discuss a question I have had for a long time: Does the NBA regular season even matter? It obviously matters a little. After next week, 10 teams will be officially eliminated from contention. On the other hand, that still means that, with the new play-in games, two-thirds of the league make the playoffs in some form. In the West, you probably do have solid teams from 1-10, but in the East the bottom three or four teams really do not have much business being anywhere near a championship.
On the higher end of the spectrum, this makes things a tad easier for whoever ends up as the No. 1 and 2 seeds. Those teams will draw a first-round matchup against the play-in winners. Those teams will have to play more games and not get a chance to rest before the series starts. Is this an advantage? Yes, but not a big enough one to make people care apparently. The shortest-priced team on the board at Tipico Sportsbook is the Brooklyn Nets at +220, and they may not even be one of the top two seeds as Philly is already 2.5 games up on them with five to play and Milwaukee is even. In the West, you see more of the same. The Utah Jazz are the fourth-shortest favorite now at +700 as the No. 1 seed. The No. 2 seed in the West, the Suns, are +1300, while the 76ers are +1200 and the Milwaukee Bucks are +750. I guess the 76ers finishing with a better record than the Nets does not matter to bettors, even when both (Brooklyn and Philly) are local teams in the Tipico betting markets.
Even as you move further down the list you realize that the NBA regular season means little to the chances of any team winning in the playoffs. The most shocking example of this is the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers started the season at +225 to +275 before any games were played. Right now, you can still get them for +380 at Tipico. Thursday night they lost to the Clippers to put tie them with the Portland Trail Blazers for the sixth seed. They play Portland Friday, and the winner gets the driver’s seat for avoiding the play-in tournament. Portland is a -280 favorite in that game; that gives them over a 70% win probability for this matchup. A Portland win drops the Lakers to a play-in series against San Antonio, Memphis or Golden State with New Orleans and Sacramento technically having a chance to sneak in as well. I think even without LeBron James, the Lakers should beat those teams. This is not the point — the point is that the Lakers are hoping LeBron is healthy enough for a playoff run and that Anthony Davis holds up for that playoff run as well, and now they have a couple extra games to contend with. On top of that, if the Lakers do end up winning a play-in series, it’s not like their path gets any easier. As a No. 7 seed they would have to face the 2-seeded Suns, probably the No. 3 Denver Nuggets or Los Angeles Clippers in Round 2, and then take on the team that winds up coming out of the other side of the bracket out of the Jazz, Clippers, or Nuggets in the Conference Championship. Even if they manage to run through that gauntlet, the Lakers would also have to contend with the Nets, Bucks or 76ers in the finals. That is a murderer’s row schedule for the defending champs, and they are still +380. I guess to the books and the bettors, the regular season really does not matter.
The regular season apparently does not matter in the Eastern Conference either. The Nets are a huge favorite at +220 on Tipico Sportsbook, yet they are not even going to win their division. The top-seed 76ers are running away with it right now and they are +1300. Even the No. 3 seed Bucks are a shorter price at +750. Currently the Bucks and Nets are battling for the No. 2 and 3 seeds. The dropoff to the Knicks and Hawks in the 4 and 5 spot is a big drop. I would much rather play them in Round 2 if I am the 76ers. The Nets and Bucks series is going to be a killer on those two teams. To me the best spot is Philly, who gets a softer Round 2 opponent and then should be ready to strike against whichever wounded animal makes it through the dogfight between the Bucks and Nets.
In the West I like looking for some of the value, because the Lakers’ road to the finals is brutal. In the East, give me a bet on the No. 1 seed 76ers for the exact opposite reason as they have the easiest path to get there. If Philly loses in Round 2 or even the conference final and if the Lakers win the whole thing, then we will have our answer about whether the regular season matters. If the Lakers do't make it and Philly does, maybe teams will stop sitting guys out for months at a time and realize that you do need to care about the regular season in order to make your life easier. You don’t get style points for winning as a No. 7 seed. You don’t get punished for winning as a No. 1 seed. Except for a handful of situations, no one even remembers that kind of thing in a year or two. All that matters is who got the rings.
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